Gelezen op FierceTelecom: Cellular will maintain its stellar growth because it is the cheapest, most convenient and pervasive means of connecting people. Increasing demand for mobile broadband and new types of devices will make up for saturating demand and price erosion in mature phone markets with voice and SMS. Two-sided operator charging, of content providers as well as end users, will become the norm. European operators are already pushing for revised Internet peering terms.

Mobile device sales will grow from 1.6 billion units in 2010 to 3.9 billion in 2025, including phones, new personal devices such as tablets and a wide variety of machines, such as cars and utility meters, which are currently mostly unconnected. Handset revenues will flatten approaching 2015 following current buoyancy in average selling prices and the smartphone surge. Device manufacturers will grow revenues from other types of devices thereafter. Total global mobile connections in service will rise to 21.5 billion (2.7 per head of population) by 2025.

While data traffic grows more than 1,000-fold, operator revenue yield per megabyte will decline dramatically from $100 with SMS, $1 in voice and $0.10 with mobile data in 2010 to $0.001 with data predominating in 2025 (global averages including postpaid and prepaid plans).

LTE is set to become the leading technology by around the end of the decade with WCDMA-based HSPA Evolved technologies remaining very strong in the marketplace. Constraints such as spectrum and device availability prevent a more rapid switch. GSM and CDMA will continue significantly beyond 2020. Mobile operator equipment expenditures will increase at an annual average of 3.3 per cent net of inflation, with most growth in developing regions.